Climate changes and trends trough bigger areas maps and graphs

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Offline TommyAst

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Climate changes and trends trough bigger areas maps and graphs
« dnia: Październik 03, 2019, 21:55:07 pm »
Here will be different trends of temperature-climate change trough bigger areas (not for one station, small area) - for World, Continent, Country, etc.

At first - Average temperature in Poland - anomaly since 1781 have been created with homogenous and non-homogenous data. Data before 1800 (or even 1850) are quite bad quality, non-homogenous, not so many stations. Praha Klementinum was used too (there are non-homogenous temperature data since 1775).

More at blog:
https://blog.meteomodel.pl/wstepne-porownanie/
https://blog.meteomodel.pl/poltemp-dane-historyczne-1/



Offline TommyAst

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Odp: Climate changes and trends trough bigger areas maps and graphs
« Odpowiedź #1 dnia: Październik 03, 2019, 22:01:06 pm »
NOAA - Database GHCN-M (Global Historical Climate Network Monthly) is much bigger than GSOD and first station occur 1763. There are data from single stations (mostly from USA), and global gridded data - average temperatures and anomalies trough globe.

Map of warming trends have been created trough gridded data. It has only small resolution. Area in Arctic and Antarctica is with missing data, too little stations is in polar areas and elevation differences of stations is quite huge difference. However, last decades - Arctic region has fastest rising trend in the world.

Few stations from Arctic are in previous project: https://meteomodel.pl/forum2/index.php?topic=2328.0

Sea with liquid water has much smaller albedo than ice. And it increasing warming of Arctic more and more (positive feedback).

Antarctica has quite unclear trend of average temperature change. Antarctica region is cooling down, but only a little. There is not significand trend compare to scattering. Soviet station Vostok is probably long-term station with coldest climate.

In Czech republic and Poland, Slovakia, Hungary - 70s and 80s was quite cold, there was significant warming after communism (accident ?). It was really bad evironment and lot of dust, smoke, ash from communist industry and it stops after it,fortunately.

There are two global maps of global temperature change trend, based on NOAA GHCN-M data. Temperature trend 1901-2018 and 1989-2018, changes are in Kelvins per 10 years. Temperature is increasing fastest in Arctic, and probably little decreasing in Antarctic (this is not clear). Trend 1989-2018 is much faster and clear than trend 1901-2018. However, Arctic and Antarctic is with missing data on the map.

There is one more supriss at trends 1989-2018. Arab peninsula, Iran, Turkey, Black sea is after Arctic area with fastest temperature change. End of Persian Gulf, south of Irak and Iran, Koweit is place with one of highest average monthly temperature of warmest month - +38-39 °C now.

Average temperature about +38-40 °C during warmest month is in danakil depression (Etiopia) in July or June (nowdays, Dallol has averabe temperature in All months above +31 °C or at least above +30 °C and average yearly temperature already above +35 °C, above +39 °C or even +40 °C in July, but there was station only 1960-1966), Sibi, Jacobabd in Pakistan (between May-June around +38-39 °C), Lut desert in Iran in July (no station yet, maybe above +40 °C July normal), Death valley in July (about +39 °C or even +40 °C July normal), around In Salah in Algeria (in July about +37-38 °C).

End of Persian gulf (Koweit-Basrah-Abadan-Ahwaz) can soon reach average temperature above +40 °C in July. There is too warmest sea in the world, up to +34 °C (or more) during Summer. Increasing humidity and heat index can make area so extreme.

I tried to find URL of source of these maps, but without success. But it is from web NCDC-NOAA.

Comparion of Summers (June-August) and Winters (December-February) 2015-2018 to 1981-2010 is from different unknown source, and maybe not GHCN-M.


Offline TommyAst

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Odp: Climate changes and trends trough bigger areas maps and graphs
« Odpowiedź #2 dnia: Październik 03, 2019, 22:16:17 pm »
Recenty - new web was found - Warming Stripes It is about temperature anomaly trough years 1850-2017 (Blue is under normal and red above normal), for world, continent, country:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warming_stripes

Author of this site - Ed Hawkins, has Twitter account:
https://mobile.twitter.com/ed_hawkins/status/1018784219055775744

Data until 2017 for few areas are from this site:
http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2018/warming-stripes/

Offline TommyAst

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Odp: Climate changes and trends trough bigger areas maps and graphs
« Odpowiedź #3 dnia: Październik 03, 2019, 22:32:15 pm »
For every country warming stripe: https://showyourstripes.info/

Data for every European country are from there, since year 2018.
Data are based on Berkeley Earth[/n]. (BK- Berkeley Earth, Data for Vinna are from ZA - Zamg, Germany DW - dwd.de, United Kingdom MS - UK Met Office, Stockholm BO - Swedish Institute ?, Switzerland MS - MeteoSwiss)


Stripe for every country in Europe has been taken here. Data range is mostly 1901-2018, for some areas from Earlier, for Oxford 1814-2018, for Wien 1775-2018 (Like data for Praha Klementinum), for Stockholm even 1756-2018 (probably non-homogenous dataset).

Last years was biggest warm anomaly in Italy, Balkan, Russia European part, around Black Sea.

Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland - Somewhere around 40s few extreme cold years.

Russia is only European part of Russia ?

Offline TommyAst

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« Odpowiedź #4 dnia: Październik 03, 2019, 22:34:38 pm »
For every country warming stripe: https://showyourstripes.info/

United Kingdom and parts. Data are from UK Met Office.

Offline TommyAst

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Odp: Climate changes and trends trough bigger areas maps and graphs
« Odpowiedź #5 dnia: Październik 03, 2019, 22:36:59 pm »
Global anomaly stripes 1850-2018 by UK Met Office - MO

Offline TommyAst

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« Odpowiedź #6 dnia: Październik 17, 2019, 23:14:19 pm »

Here:
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/index_v4.html
Can be created maps of anomally and trends between selected years for world.


Parameters are:
Data GHCNv4 for land and ERSST_v5 for Ocean, map type is trend between two selected years (ic can be selected any year since 1880 - at Time Interval). Base period is only for anomalies, not for trends. Map projection is Robinson and Smoothing radius is 250 km (possibilities are 250 km and 1200 km, map with smoothing radius 1200 km is more smooth).

Here are created maps with various time interval for trends. Since 1990- Warming is much faster than before. Numbers are always changes in Kelvin per decade (ten years). Usually - data for Arctic and Antarctica are missing. Arctic has fastest warming trends at all in last decades and Antarctica is without significant trend (non-significant trend with temperature dropping).


Offline TommyAst

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Odp: Climate changes and trends trough bigger areas maps and graphs
« Odpowiedź #7 dnia: Październik 17, 2019, 23:18:51 pm »

Here:
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/index_v4.html
Can be created maps of anomally and trends between selected years for world.


Parameters are:
Data GHCNv4 for land and ERSST_v5 for Ocean, map type is trend between two selected years (ic can be selected any year since 1880 - at Time Interval). Base period is only for anomalies, not for trends. Map projection is Robinson and Smoothing radius is 250 km (possibilities are 250 km and 1200 km, map with smoothing radius 1200 km is more smooth).

Global maps with 10-years-trends from 1880 to 2018. Since 1990- Warming is much faster than before. Numbers are always changes in Kelvin per decade (ten years). Usually - data for Arctic and Antarctica are missing. Arctic has fastest warming trends at all in last decades and Antarctica is without significant trend (non-significant trend with temperature dropping).

Offline TommyAst

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Odp: Climate changes and trends trough bigger areas maps and graphs
« Odpowiedź #8 dnia: Październik 18, 2019, 22:59:15 pm »
Numerical simulation with model Rocke-3D for Earth in modern era, paleo-Earth, Venus, Exoplanets can be found at GIS NASA.


Source code of model ROCKE-3D is here:
https://simplex.giss.nasa.gov/gcm/ROCKE-3D/



Ready results of ROCKE-3D here:
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/rocke3d/maps/


There are results for Earth with various level of CO2, few types of paleo-Earth, Venus in paleo-Era (before volcanic and CO2 disaster), and closest exoplanet Proxima b (Synchrotronous (Tidal locked, Resonance 1:1), atmosphere Earth-like and CO2 atmosphere, and resonance 3:2). Maps are from this page, only Data Sources A[/i] was changed for maps creation. There are another types of maps too, not only temperature.

Of course, another atmosphere type, star type, planet type can be deffined.

DESCRIPTION OF MODELS AND PLANETS AT SOURCE PAGE:
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/rocke3d/maps/


Simulated Planets

Proxima Centauri b


A planet discovered orbiting the star nearest to Earth. It is not known whether Proxima Centauri b has an atmosphere or how fast it rotates. We show three hypothetical climates:

    A planet that keeps the same face toward the star at all times, with an Earthlike 1 bar atmosphere made of N2 and 376 ppmv of CO2
    A planet that keeps the same face toward the star at all times, with a 1 bar CO2 atmosphere
    A planet that rotates on its axis 3 times for every 2 orbits around its star, with an Earthlike atmosphere made of N2 and 376 ppmv of CO2

Further discussion of these simulations appears in Del Genio et al. (2018, accepted).

Ancient Earth

Four periods going successively farther back in time:

    The Cretaceous Period of the Phanerozoic Eon (circa 100 million years ago), a “greenhouse” interval when dinosaurs roamed the Earth, the continents were more closely spaced, and the climate was warmer than today due to an increased level of CO2. We simulate the Cretaceous here with a CO2 level of 1140 ppmv (~1.15 mb), 4 times greater than the modern pre-industrial value.
    The Sturtian glacial interval of the Proterozoic Eon (circa 715 million years ago), when the climate was very cold thanks to multiple factors that include a Sun that was 6% dimmer than today, and reduced greenhouse gas warming (here simulated by a CO2 level of just 40 ppmv, or ~0.04 mb). The supercontinent Rodinia was just beginning to break apart, with most land masses still closely packed near the equator.
    The Huronian glacial interval of the Proterozoic Eon (circa 2.1 billion years ago), when the climate was so cold that the Earth’s oceans could have frozen over entirely, making Earth look like a snowball. Factors that led to this ice age include a Sun that was 16% dimmer than today, and reduced greenhouse gas warming (here simulated by a CO2 level of 40 ppmv, ~0.04 mb) that may have been caused by the first significant increase in atmospheric oxygen. We are unsure where the continents were at this time, so this simulation uses the same configuration as the Sturtian.
    The Mesoarchean Era of the Archean Eon (circa 2.9 billion years ago), when the Sun was 20% dimmer than today, oxygen was not yet present, and it was likely that the atmosphere had much more CO2 (10 mb) and CH4 (2 mb) than it does today. Earth’s land-ocean configuration is at this time is unknown (the continents may not even have been exposed); the simulation assumes modern Earth continents. (Further discussion of this time appears in De Genio et al. (2018, submitted).)

Ancient Venus

Today Venus has a thick, hot CO2 atmosphere and is uninhabitable. But early in its history, it may have been more like Earth. This simulation shows a hypothetical ancient Venus 2.9 billion years ago under a 20% dimmer Sun, assuming that Venus rotated as slowly as it does now (once every 243 days), had a modern Earthlike atmosphere (1 bar N2 and 400 ppmv of CO2), and had a shallow 310 m ocean that filled in its current lowland areas. The simulation portrays a two-month period of Venus's year to emphasize the solar heating of the dayside.

Further discussion of these simulations appears in Way et al. (2016).

Modern Earth

The time period covered goes from the pre-industrial (1850) era to current times. Selected experiments for the CMIP6 project are shown, including investigations of some future scenarios and sensitivity tests for various forcings.

References and Use

Please see the GISS Astrobiology — NExSS ROCKE-3D project for more information related to this research.

These results are freely available for public use. We request that if you use them in any publication or online application, you acknowledge the NExSS ROCKE-3D project and cite:

Way, M.J., I. Aleinov, D.S. Amundsen, M.A. Chandler, T. Clune, A.D. Del Genio, Y. Fujii, M. Kelley, N.Y. Kiang, L. Sohl, and K. Tsigaridis, 2017: Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics 1.0: A general circulation model for simulating the climates of rocky planets. Astrophys. J. Supp. Series, 231, no. 1, 12, doi:10.3847/1538-4365/aa7a06.

Related papers include:

Way, M.J., A.D. Del Genio, N.Y. Kiang, L.E. Sohl, D.H. Grinspoon, I. Aleinov, M. Kelley, and T. Clune, 2016: Was Venus the first habitable world of our solar system? Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, no. 16, 8376-8383, doi:10.1002/2016GL069790.

Del Genio, A.D., M.J. Way, D.S. Amundsen, I. Aleinov, M. Kelley, N.Y. Kiang, and T.L. Clune, 2018: Habitable climate scenarios for Proxima Centauri b with a dynamic ocean. Astrobiology, early on-line.

Del Genio, A.D., D. Brain, L. Noack, and L. Schaefer, 2018: The inner Solar System's habitability through time, submitted for inclusion in Planetary Astrobiology, University of Arizona Press.
Contact

Please address scientific inquiries about these data to Dr. Anthony Del Genio.


Offline TommyAst

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« Odpowiedź #9 dnia: Październik 19, 2019, 19:26:05 pm »
GISTEMP seasonal cycle each year since April 1880 - global average temperature for each calendar month since April 1880 to September 2019. There is in graph anomaly (difference from normal) each calendar month - normal is average yearly temperature through period 1980-2015. This period (1980-2015) is already with significant global temperature rising, that is why most of months have anomaly (difference) bellow zero. Color of line is slowly changing through years from blue (early years) to red (recent years).

There are aviable CSV and TXT data.

Source:
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/graph_data/GISTEMP_Seasonal_Cycle_since_1880/graph.png